Punished Macron can hope for a parliamentary majority

In the parliamentary elections, France’s voters put a damper on President Emmanuel Macron. His camp ends up just a hair’s breadth ahead of the new left-wing alliance – but has better cards. Why?

Paris.

The center alliance of France’s recently re-elected head of state Emmanuel Macron averted a defeat in the first round of the parliamentary elections by a hair’s breadth.

With nationwide only about 20. According to the preliminary final result, Macron’s camp landed in first place ahead of the new left-wing alliance. In the decisive second round of the election, a clear victory for the middle camp is still expected. At first glance, this seems contradictory, but it is due to the complicated majority voting system. Nevertheless, Sunday’s result is a heavy blow for Macron. The most important things after the first ballot at a glance.

How did the election turn out?

The candidates from Macron’s center alliance got the most votes, even if they are threatened with significant seat losses in the National Assembly. They came up to 25,75 percent nationwide. The alliance of left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon, made up of leftists, communists, greens and socialists, was with 25,66 Percent just behind – which in itself represents a defeat for the head of state. Marine Le Pen’s right-wing national Rassemblement National (RN) party received 18,68 percent of the votes. The Republicans, currently the strongest opposition force in the National Assembly, drove 10,42 One percent.

Why should Macron’s camp still be ahead in the end?

Of the 577 mandates to be awarded, only 2 were directly decided in the first round. The rest will be disputed next Sunday in the second ballot. There are at least the two first-placed voters from each voting district and all those who have more than 125 percent of the votes of all those registered voters have received. The left alliance is predicted in forecasts 150 to 210 seats, Macron’s alliance 255 to 310, which could be enough for an absolute majority.

It is to be expected that some candidates who have made progress will now withdraw their candidacy in order to prevent either a left-wing or a right-wing politician from winning. As a politically centered force, Macron’s camp should be able to benefit more from voter migration than the left-wing alliance. This is already taken into account in the forecasts.

What chances do the left still have?

Forecasts paint the left no chance of getting a majority in the National Assembly. However, they are clearly heading towards becoming the strongest opposition force and thus gaining influence. Should Macron’s camp lose an absolute majority, Mélenchon’s alliance could make it difficult for the government to pass laws.

What about the right-wing nationalists?

Marine Le Pen’s party has so far had eight seats in parliament. Now it can be set to 10 to 20 hope seats. The fact that it shouldn’t be significantly more has to do with the majority voting system. From 12 sitting, the block around Le Pen would get faction status.

What is at stake for Germany and Europe?

Even if Macron only has a relative and not an absolute majority in parliament, Germany and Europe can still count on France as a reliable partner. Mélenchon’s Left Party may be adopting a Euro-critical tone, but his alliance will probably not consistently present itself in parliament. It is to be expected that Socialists and Republicans will vote with the Macron camp on issues relating to Germany and Europe. France will also remain an integral part of the West’s united front against the aggressor Russia in the Ukraine war.

What influence does the National Assembly have?

It is the central power organ of the French Parliament. MPs vote on laws. There is also a second chamber of parliament, the Senate, but this is less important. Because if the chambers do not agree, the government can leave the last word to the National Assembly. (dpa)

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